Photo: Permanent Court of Arbitration. Grabbed from a PCA press release. 

In a recent commentary published in Global Asia, Professor Aileen Baviera of the UP Asian Center reflects on post-Arbitration prospects for China and for its relations with ASEAN member states, including the Philippines. Following a summary of the tribunal's findings, Professor Baviera writes that "most analysts agree, however, that without China’s co-operation, the arbitration award becomes practically unenforceable. The challenge is in persuading China that accommodation and voluntary compliance with the decision are in its best interests," for reasons that have to do with geopolitics, economics, and China's "leadership aspirations." Below are some excerpts from the commentary.

ON GEOPOLITICS

"Rather than helping China to forge the “new type of major-power relations” that it says it wants with the US, ignoring the tribunal decision while continuing its military buildup could further tilt the balance of influence in favor of the US in China’s own backyard. Accommodation and voluntary compliance, on the other hand, may reduce the perceived need for third-party intervention, at the same time dissuading others from trying to “contain” China."

ON ECONOMICS

"Facing economic slowdown and anchoring its future growth on cooperation with neighboring economies, China needs to provide assurances to smaller countries — particularly those it targets as part of its ambitious One Belt, One Road initiative — that it will not use its size, superior military power or economic leverage to enforce its will even when international norms and law uphold the rights of other states. Long-term economic partnerships can only be built on the expectation of mutual benefit and on trust underpinned by clear rules and agreed norms."

ON CHINA'S LEADERSHIP ASPIRATIONS

Third is its own leadership aspirations. As China gears up for a future world order where it fully takes its place at the rule-making table and becomes a provider of public goods, it must prove itself capable of and committed to upholding existing international treaties and conventions that are the bedrock of stability in the international system. 

In addition, Professor Baviera argues that "China’s voluntary compliance can take form and shape in the already existing arenas of engagement on the South China Sea issue," such as "China's dual track approach to the South China Sea;" the restoration of Scarborough Shoal as a common fishing ground for China and the Philippines; and "cooperation on maritime law enforcement... as part of negotiations for an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct," among others.  

Lastly, "solutions [to the disputes]," argues Professor Baviera, "need not depart from [the] previous...policy of "shelving sovereignty disputes in favor of joint development" (Deng Xiaoping). However, she writes that the solutions "do require a drastic change in the Chinese mindset on two fronts: a recognition that the South China Sea is a shared resource among littoral states; and the acceptance of international law.    

The UP Asian Center offers M.A. programs in Asian Studies with four fields of specialization: Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. The Center also has an M.A. program in Philippine Studies that allows students to major in Philippine society and culture, Philippine foreign relations, or Philippine development studies. The Center offers a Ph.D. program in Philippine Studies in conjunction with the College of Arts and Letters and the College of Social Sciences and Philosophy. Get an overview of these programs. The Asian Center also houses a peer-reviewed, open-access journal, Asian Studies: Journal of Critical Perspectives on Asia. It has published several books and monographs, and hosts or organizes various lectures and conferences.